Atlantic Hurricane season seasonally peaks around this time of year---September 11th is the actual peak date. On schedule, the basin is alive with active—and threatening storms. Thursday of this upcoming week is going to be a really, really busy, and scary day perhaps, for a lot of people. Let’s get started.
FLORENCE
Of concern tonight is Florence. The tropical storm is likely to regain hurricane status, after briefly having major hurricane status earlier in the week. Why it’s of concern, and why that concern is growing, is that it appears increasingly unlikely that Florence will recurve out to sea east of Bermuda, or between Bermuda and that by next Thursday morning, Florence will be an intense hurricane on approach to either South or North Carolina, perhaps between Myrtle Beach and Cape Lookout.
The synoptic pattern has been persistent this summer and was a concern months ago. It’s why it’s been extremely hot in New England, and extremely wet in the mid-Atlantic (for an example, I ended up with over 20 inches of rain at my house north of Harrisburg for July and August, and the rain has been a backdrop for one of the most personally shitty summers in my recent personal life, but I digress), and dry out west. It’s made for great tomatoes though, but it also means any land-falling tropical system in the Southeast will be bad for the mid-Atlantic.
It doesn’t help that the remnants of Gordon are hanging around as well.
Some modeling indicates Florence may actually get stuck, perhaps near or in the Carolinas, perhaps a bit farther north and inland. An inland stall would be catastrophic in any event, and we are at the moment not a nation prepared to deal with it. Look at how shitty the Maria, and Irma, and Harvey aftermath has been.
Modeling also indicates, and some of the atmospheric conditions in the next couple days support this, that Florence will be come exceptionally intense, more so than it was earlier in the week, and perhaps as intense, if not more so, than Hurricane Hugo was as it came ashore near Charleston in September of 1989.
This is really the time to stay tuned, and get ready, as pretty much everyone in a swath from Jacksonville on up to Boston really needs to pay attention to this one. Inland areas too, given how exceptionally wet it’s been this summer.
ISSAC
Issac is a tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles. Issac is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean Sea.
Issac is worth watching closely. It will strike islands on Thursday hit hard last year, although shear in the long term may take it out. Still, it’ll be in the Caribbean late next week. Stay tuned.
HELENE
Helene is very far away from land, and at the moment, not much of a threat to anyone.
There are also strong disturbances behind Helene over Africa that will have to be monitored. Beginning to think we may end up with an active hurricane season in the Atlantic after all.
THE PACIFIC
The Pacific basin is not to be outdone, it’s been extremely active this year thanks to a growing El Nino, and generally hot water anyway. Of interest is Hurricane Olivia.
OLIVIA
Olivia has passed into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s responsiblity area. It also will likely move through the Hawaiian Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Given how much rain Hurricane Lane dropped on the islands last month, this isn’t a good thing.
If it seems like, for the last few years, Hawaii’s been getting a lot of storms, you’re right. And get used to it. We’ve changed the planet’s climate, so these islands which previously got very few storms, are likely going to get lots of them now.
Updates as I have time during the week.